Week 5 Upset Alert: Alabama, Florida among top 25 teams facing road tests

The going-through-the-motions portion of the schedule is over for college football’s Power Four programs. 

Week 5 brings tougher conference matchups across the top 25, and a few contenders are about to learn whether early-season success travels.

This is where the potential for upset gets interesting every weekend. Teams with superior rosters can survive a sluggish quarter against overmatched opponents, but the margin for error diminishes away from home, and there are a couple of unbeaten top-10 SEC teams going on the road as narrow favorites Saturday in a prime spot for a letdown. 

With the College Football Playoff picture still taking shape, getting out of Week 5 with a win is the assignment. We put Michigan and Louisville on upset alert at home last week, and both were beaten as Iowa and Wake Forest made their respective climbs in the national conversation.

Here are the teams facing the most uncomfortable matchups this weekend as schedules begin to bite. One team that narrowly missed this group this week is Ohio State, which is a 13.5-point favorite at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are unbeaten after beating Michigan, while the Buckeyes already have a loss after the Week 2 setback at Texas.

Penn State

Opponent: at Northwestern (+2.5)

Everything has been building this season at Northwestern toward this game as the Wildcats open the new Ryan Field on Friday night. This should’ve been a nationally ranked Penn State team coming to Evanston, Illinois, but the Nittany Lions failed to hold a second-half lead against Wisconsin last week. Northwestern was competitive during a 29-23 loss to Indiana and is playing with extreme confidence thanks to offensive schematic revisions made this fall by Chip Kelly and quarterback Aidan Chiles.

Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht is coming off his worst performance in four seasons as a starting Power Four quarterback after going 12 of 29 for 114 yards and an interception without a touchdown pass against the Badgers.

“He is a competitor, he’s tough, he processes really well. He throws a really good ball, and ultimately he is a winner,” Northwestern coach David Braun said of Becht this week. “I’m excited to continue to go through our process and identify a limitation or a weakness, but it’s really hard to find one right now. I think it’s the ultimate compliment — the guy is a winner.”

No. 7 Alabama

Opponent: at No. 16 Mississippi State (+5.5)

The best quarterback duel of the weekend, it would be no shock if Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor combine for eight touchdowns in this one. Alabama’s defense is giving up yards in chunks this season despite coming in unbeaten, while the Bulldogs are fresh off their first top-25 win in three years under Jeff Lebby. The Heisman race takes center stage in Starkville, with the victor moving closer to Jeremiah Smith and Darian Mensah at the top.

Kalen DeBoer vs. ranked teams at Alabama

No. 8 Florida

Opponent: at No. 25 Missouri (+5.5)

Why is the line under a touchdown here for a red-hot team going against one that’s still hanging in the national rankings despite a fourth-quarter letdown last week at Mississippi State? This is where you lean toward the oddsmakers. The emotional high of Week 4’s destruction of Ole Miss will be difficult for the Gators to match on the road against a team that plays a similar offensive style focused on the line of scrimmage. 

Assuming Florida finishes the season as one of the SEC’s top teams, a win in this spot for Eli Drinkwitz would be his first with the Tigers against an opponent who finishes the season with a winning record in league play. I had to triple-check that stat — 0-16 all time — this week to make sure it was accurate.

No. 17 Tennessee

Opponent: vs. Auburn (+7.5)

Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin likes to turn up the heat defensively, and after seeing last week’s film of the Texas defensive line feasting on the Vols, he’ll have something planned for Tennessee and quarterback Faizon Brandon this weekend. That said, it would be much more worrisome for the Vols if this game were being played on The Plains. Neyland Stadium should create a raucous environment and make things difficult for the Auburn offense, which has been up and down through the season’s first four weeks.

There’s the homecoming angle for Tigers coach Alex Golesh here as well. Golesh spent several years on Josh Heupel’s staff as offensive coordinator and knows what this unit likes to do and how it is run. If there’s any coach in the SEC who can combat Tennessee’s strengths on that side of the football, it should be someone who helped orchestrate it in 2021 and 2022.

No. 20 Houston

Opponent: vs. UCF (+12.5)

Are the Knights back under Scott Frost? Their only loss this season was a 12-7 setback at unbeaten Pittsburgh on Sept. 12, and their win over TCU in last week’s Big 12 opener was notable. Frost has already shown some gamesmanship ahead of this one after refusing to wear his team’s home jerseys in response to Houston’s whiteout request. The Cougars are wearing their light blue alternates instead. With a trip to Kansas State looming for Houston, the Cougars must avoid overlooking UCF.