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That’s all, folks!
Luke Harding
Thanks for your brilliant questions and apologies that I didn’t manage to answer many of them. I’ve been typing as fast as I can!
Do pick up a copy of Betrayal (from the Guardian Bookshop) and thanks for supporting our journalism. It’s wonderful to have intelligent and engaged readers, who are curious about the world! I’m at various book festivals this autumn and beyond, where we can continue the conversation.
When and how might the war in Ukraine end?
SaraLus asks: I write as a sponsor of a Ukrainian mother and daughter from Kyiv and consequently I read your articles with some fervour … when do you think the war will end? There are rumours that the banking system will collapse by November and that consequently Putin will be ousted and the war will end if not the Russian military threat and the occupation of Crimea.
OldRoots asks: How do you think the war might end? It seems unlikely that Moscow would be able to occupy and subjugate all of Ukraine but it’s also hard to see Kyiv being able to retake the territory it has lost. If you look beneath the propaganda and the braggadocio of the main players, is there a deal to be had?
Luke:
No time soon, unfortunately. Putin’s demands are as maximalist as ever. He wants to seize the eastern Donbas region, together with other chunks of territory, and to fold Ukraine back into a Greater Russia. So far the Kremlin has lost 1.2m troops, killed and injured. Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on oil refineries and warehouses have brought the cost of the war home to ordinary Russians. But in a totalitarian state popular opinion – which broadly favours the invasion – makes little difference.
The war will only end or pause, in my view, when Putin is removed from the Kremlin horizontally in a coffin. A successor may wish to continue but Russia’s sanctioned oligarchs and other elites will probably want it to stop.
Do you worry about the FSB at your door?
Aarthoor asks: My only question is: Do you ever worry there will be an FSB man waiting for you at home with a bottle of Novichok?
Luke:
No! We had a torrid time in Moscow between 2007-2011, when I worked there as the Guardian’s bureau chief. The FSB – which Putin ran before he became prime minister and president – broke into our family apartment. On one occasion they opened a window in my six-year-old son’s bedroom; there was a steep drop to the courtyard below. I write about this in my book Mafia State. The British embassy told us our home was bugged; sometimes unpromising men in leather jackets tailed me around Moscow.
And as previously mentioned, the FSB eventually deported me from Russia. I take comfort from the fact the Kremlin considers me – and all British and US correspondents – to be spies! Traditionally the KGB harassed and intimidated foreign reporters, but didn’t harm them. There was a different protocol for Russians deemed to be traitors. They could be arrested, jailed and murdered. The same dark rules apply today.
What is the west’s biggest vulnerability?
Harveyj asks: In Betrayal, do you conclude that Russian influence over western democracies is most effective when it recruits sympathetic individuals or when it amplifies existing divisions that already exist within democratic societies? What is the west’s bigger vulnerability, foreign penetration or our own domestic polarisation?
Luke: Today’s Russia uses the same KGB playbook as its Soviet predecessor. One method is to approach possible agents of influence, who are sympathetic to Moscow’s cause. These could be students, politicians or upwardly mobile business people.
Another is to amplify existing divisions in western societies (such as immigration and other culture war issues). The objective is to push extreme views, on both left and right. This undermines the moderate centre, so members of an “enemy” society such as Britain spend their time shouting at each other. The western democratic model is based on openness, something the Kremlin keenly exploits.
What is Elon Musk’s relationship with Putin?
astrobot303 asks: The WSJ reported that Elon Musk and Putin have been in regular contact since 2022. We know Musk was seemingly targeted by Russia. Should we be worried?
Luke: Musk’s views on Russia are both hugely influential and deeply contradictory. On one hand, as you mention, he has reportedly spoken to Putin several times. On X, Musk has been known to share Kremlin talking points: not least that Ukraine should accept a “deal”, even though Russia is not offering one (it insists on Kyiv’s capitulation).
On the other, Ukrainian soldiers use Starlink across a 1,000km long frontline. Earlier this year Ukraine’s now sacked defence minister Mykailo Federov persuaded Musk to switch Starlink off for Russian combat forces. This gave a real boost to Ukraine’s military; Russia still struggles to contact some of its forward units. So far, though, Musk is refusing to allow Ukraine to deploy Starlink technology on its long-range drones when they attack targets in Russia. If he did, Kyiv would be able to knock out sites used to launch ballistic missiles at Kyiv and other cities.
If Trump were a Russian asset, what would he have done differently?
tommyds asks: Is there any difference between Trump being a Russian asset and Trump just being an asset to Russia? I think his regime is unquestionably good for Russia, the only outstanding question seems to be if there’s a direct quid pro quo?
DukeApricot asks: ‘What would Trump have done differently if he were compromised’ is a persuasive argument, do you really think this is the case? Republicans used to be ‘Better dead than red’, surely there must still be some hangover of that feeling towards the new Russia? Isn’t Trump just driven by personal greed … For example, he likes the idea of a weakened Ukraine purely because he can force a better ‘deal’ on minerals …
Luke:
Donald Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin is the biggest mystery in international politics. In 2017 I wrote a book about it called Collusion, which became a #1 New York Times bestseller. Trump, of course, has always denied links with Russia. But during his second term his behaviour towards Putin is as weird as during his first. During last year’s Alaska summit the US president applauded his Russian counterpart, and then deferred to him at their joint press conference. Why?
There are, I think, several overlapping reasons which I explore in Betrayal. One is ideological: Trump’s MAGA supporters see Russia as an “anti-woke” kindred state. Another – advanced by Fiona Hill, the former White House adviser – is strongman envy. Trump would like Putin’s freedom of action, when it comes to making money and crushing opponents. The third is potential kompromat, or compromising material. We know from declassified records that the Czechoslovak secret police began spying on Trump in the 1970s. He visited Moscow in 1987, in a trip organised by a state agency with links to the KGB, and made several subsequent trips to Russia including in 2013 for the Miss Universe beauty pageant.
What exactly happened there is unclear. But Putin knows, and Trump knows that Putin knows. Since 2025 Trump has cut direct military aid to Ukraine and humiliated its leader in the Oval Office. As Garry Kasparov notes, if Trump were a Russian asset, what exactly would he do differently?
How should the UK respond to hybrid warfare?
DrVanNostram asks: What should the UK be doing to respond better to hybrid warfare?
Luke:
Ministers need to explain that the threat from Russia is real, and that this means painful political decisions. One of them is to spend more money on defence – the issue that triggered John Healey’s resignation, in the last days of Keir Starmer’s government. Another is to prepare British citizens for possible acts of sabotage. Nordic countries have sent out letters, advising people to stock up on three days worth of emergency supplies in case they have no access to food, water and power.
My own left-field idea is to establish a new Royal College of Drones. War has changed, as the conflict in Ukraine demonstrates, migrating from land to the sky. It is now a highly technical aerial battle. The government could hold a competition to identify talented gamers and then offer them jobs as military drone pilots.
Will Russia take military action against a Nato country?
Ipswichred asks: Why is Russia considered a wider threat when it cannot even defeat Ukraine?
Pressfreedomorbust asks: What do you think is the likelihood of Russia taking military action (drones or troops) against another country such as Poland or Estonia? This would force Nato to use its military resources on this second conflict instead of supplying Ukraine.
Luke:
Russia says it is at war not just with Ukraine, but the “collective west”. Accordingly, it carries out a number of hostile actions against the UK and EU countries. They include sabotage (undersea cables, bombs on cargo planes), disinformation and support for pro-Russian Eurosceptic parties (AFD in Germany, Reform in Britain, etc.)
Last year Moscow sent a swarm of decoy drones into Poland, to probe Nato’s defences. European leaders are generally reluctant to describe the Kremlin’s acts as war, preferring to use the qualifier “hybrid”. For now Putin is bogged down in Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia’s diversionary behaviour will continue. I wouldn’t rule out some kind of military “provocation”, probably limited in scope, against a Nato country.
Is Putin secure?
Churchcar72 asks: How safe is Putin’s position? Like Trump if he goes the house of cards falls – yet he seems unassailable – only age and death can bring him down. Is he really that secure?
Luke:
He’s safe. There was much speculation around the time of the full-scale invasion that Putin was sick and possibly dying. This turned out to be wishful thinking. Similarly, there is little prospect of a palace coup or popular revolution in Russia. The reality is Putin will stay in power for life. Most people support him, state propaganda is as potent as ever, and the security services keep a close eye on dissent. Many of those who oppose him left the country in 2022. The majority are passive and fatalistic. The fate of Alexey Navalny – murdered in a Siberian gulag in 2024, likely on Putin’s orders – sent its own grim message.
How can we support women in Afghanistan?
LucyWBMcA asks: What are the options for countries who want to support the women of Afghanistan in their struggle against oppression and restrictions on rights and freedoms?
Luke:
I visited Afghanistan in 2000, when the Taliban were first in power. One image haunts me: when I ate at a restaurant in Kabul I noticed the diners were all men. Outside by the entrance, women in blue burqas begged for scraps. I subsequently covered the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, when I was based in Delhi for the Guardian, and visited schools for girls.
Five years on from the Taliban’s return, there is no easy answer. Governments need to raise the restrictions on women’s rights and freedoms. And the home office should lift its unjust visa ban on Afghan nationals who want to study in the UK.
What do we know about interference in the Brexit referendum?
IscoBusquet asks: The report into Russian political interference in the UK stated that the security services were not given permission to look into any interference in the Brexit referendum because of political sensitivity. Is it possible for them to revisit this?
Luke:
We never got to see the confidential annex attached to the Russia Report. (If someone has a copy, please send to me ℅ Guardian!) But yes, it revealed that none of the state agencies investigated Russian interference in the run-up to the 2016 referendum. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are especially keen to examine what happened.
We know the following: that the Kremlin backed Brexit, seeing it as a way of weakening the UK, politically and economically, and estranging it from its European partners. Russian trolls posted thousands of pro-Brexit messages, as well as inflammatory stories about immigrants. I suspect there was espionage too. We need to find out what happened in order to safeguard elections in future.
What impact will North Korea’s support have on the Ukraine war?
Stakeman asks: Do you think the huge influx of North Korean soldiers (circa 50k?) will make a big difference on the frontline boundary battles given that we hear Ukraine drones are picking them off?
Luke:
Yes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy says North Korea is sending another 50,000 troops, in addition to the 12,000 who took part in the 2024-2025 battle for Russia’s western Kursk region. Their arrival will enable the Kremlin to send additional forces to the eastern Donbas, Putin’s main target, where intense battles continue.
Over the past year and a half North Korean soldiers have experienced modern warfare. They have learned about surveillance and kamikaze drones, which saturate the frontline. This hard-won knowledge could be employed in a future peninsula conflict with South Korea.
Will you ever go back to Russia?
BenHSm asks: Do you think you will ever have the possibility to go to Russia again? And if you could, would you?
Luke:
I was stopped at Moscow airport in 2011 and deported from the country. In 2022 Russia’s foreign ministry put me on a list of banned individuals (which also includes several of my colleagues from the Guardian.) There’s no prospect of my returning to Russia while Vladimir Putin’s regime remains in power, and his war in Ukraine continues. Nor would I want to.
But Putin isn’t eternal and at some point Russia may reckon with his decades of delusion and misrule. One fantasy: I return to Moscow as an old man and knock on the door of the Lubyanka, the FSB and KGB’s HQ. I would like to see the FSB’s secret dossier on me and to write a book in the style of Timothy Garton Ash’s marvellous memoir The File.
Has Russia’s relationship with the UK changed?
Philippeblades asks: A couple of days ago the Russian ambassador to the UK was withdrawn after seven years. How much should we read into this?
Luke:
Russia abandoned traditional diplomacy a long time ago. Its emissaries abroad operate as suit-wearing trolls. Their job is to repeat Kremlin lies – for example, that neo-Nazis run Ukraine – to an international audience. Relations between London and Moscow have been awful for well over a decade. Russian state TV calls the UK “Foggy Albion” and periodically threatens nuclear annihilation. I don’t think we should read too much into the ambassador’s departure. But Russia’s dislike of Britain is very real.
Who is your biggest journalistic influence?
leeabroad asks: The days of reporters like Robert Fisk and Marie Colvin going to places and breaking stories that make news around the globe are long gone. Patrick Cockburn is nigh on 80. Who was or is your biggest journalistic influence? Who are the journalists today whose courage and reportage you most respect?
Luke:
What a wonderful question. I admire my Ukrainian colleagues who continue to document the invasion of their country, often at terrible personal cost. Several have been killed and injured. There are many brave international reporters in Kyiv too, who have become dear friends. In terms of influence, I would name two great correspondents, James Cameron and Ryszard Kapuscinski. Both were superlative writers and observers. Cameron’s books – among them An Indian Summer and Point of Departure – are literary gems. And Kapuscinski’s Imperium – about the fall of the Soviet Union – is a masterpiece.
Should the UK have taken the murder of Alexander Litvinenko more seriously?
sberney asks: Do you think the UK government should have taken the murder of Alexander Litvinenko more seriously and not have invited Putin to the 2012 Olympics in London?
Luke:
Yes. I covered Litvinenko’s case from Moscow and London and am good friends with his widow Marina. I also wrote a book, A Very Expensive Poison, which was adapted by Lucy Prebble into a successful stage play. Over the past two decades Russia has carried out various dark deeds. They include sending assassins to kill Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal, shooting down MH17 and in 2014 annexing Crimea. Typically the west’s response has been unimaginative and lacklustre. After Litvinenko’s poisoning Gordon Brown’s government expelled a few diplomats and David Cameron – as you mention – invited Putin to watch judo at the London Olympics. All of this emboldened Russia’s leader. He thought Europe was weak. This led directly to his decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Welcome to the Conversation
Luke Harding, author and award-winning foreign correspondent is replying to your questions now. He has covered wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and most recently Ukraine.
