Polls open in Makerfield for historic byelection that could determine Keir Starmer’s future
Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.
The people of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside of Wigan, have at last begun voting in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.
Since Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a clear run at returning to parliament – and the opportunity to become prime minister – residents have been inundated with party campaigners and reporters.
Yesterday Burnham urged people to “vote to change politics” and said he would take the “fight as high as I can possibly take it”.
But, despite the seat being considered one of Labour’s safest (it has been red since its creation in 1983), the governing party face a stiff challenge in the shape of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Although the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s campaign has been bogged down with the revelation of historic sexist social media post and, shall we say, less than impressive media performances under scrutiny, pollsters have the contest a close run thing.
It comes as Starmer on Wednesday said he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, should Burnham win when Thursday’s votes are counted.
But allies of Burnham said he was not interested in the offer, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government’s failings”.
Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, rather than a leadership contest, which they believe would be damaging to the Labour party’s brand, according to the Times.
But the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and says that he will fight any challenge to his leadership.
What is certain is that the next 24 hours will prove to be a pivotal moment for this Labour government and, in particular, the prime minister.
Please be aware that the Guardian, like other news outlets, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while polls are still open today – they close at 10pm.
But you can follow our blog for all the latest in UK politics, as well as I am sure plenty of photos of dogs at polling stations. Because, let’s face it, that really is the true meaning of any British election.
Key events
Heather Stewart
Brexit has depressed UK exports to the EU by 12%, and rejoining the customs union would undo only a fraction of the damage, research shared with the Guardian shows.
With the UK’s future relationship with the bloc likely to feature prominently in a potential Labour leadership contest, the economists John Springford and Anton Spisak, of the Centre for European Reform, provide fresh evidence of the damage caused by exiting.
A decade on from the referendum, they have found that services sector exports to the EU are 7% lower than they would have been if the UK had remained in the EU, and goods exports are 16% lower.
Using detailed trade data and economic modelling, they show that the “overwhelming majority” of the impact – 10% of the total 12% decline in exports – is accounted for by leaving the single market.
“The regulatory costs related to Brexit – such as new certification procedures and checks for compliance with EU standards – have had a much more significant impact on UK-EU trade than customs-related barriers,” they say.
The hardest-hit sectors have been travel, finance and insurance, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and agrifood.
The estimate of lost services exports is larger than previous research has suggested, because the authors take into account a significant uptick in services trade within the EU since the Covid pandemic that the UK has missed out on.
Alexandra Topping
The trial of two Russian-linked arsonists who targeted property connected to Keir Starmer shows that the UK is under attack from bad actors who want to “exploit division” and “destabilise our democracy”, the prime minister has said.
Roman Lavrynovych, 22, from Ukraine, and Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, from Romania, were found guilty on Monday of conspiring to carry out arson attacks on property linked to the prime minister, and appear to have operated under the instruction of an online handler with links to Russia.
Speaking at the G7 in Évian-les-Bains, France, on Wednesday, Starmer said the attack on the house had “clearly impacted and affected my family”.
Lavrynovych and Carpiuc will be sentenced on Friday. Their co-defendant, Petro Pochynok, 35, was cleared. Lavrynovych was also convicted of damaging two properties by fire, being reckless as to whether life was endangered, on 11 and 12 May last year.
The sentencing comes during a period of heightened tension between Russia and the UK. On Sunday a Russian shadow fleet vessel containing 98,000 tonnes of oil was intercepted by British troops in the Channel, and on Tuesday a Russian warship fired warning shots at a British-flagged yacht.
Starmer said the warning shots were “deeply concerning and reckless”, and said the UK was dealing with proxy attacks from Russia “every single day”.
US defence secretary urges UK to spend more on defence, ‘step up and do even more’
Jakub Krupa
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has offered his view on the relationship with the UK, after meeting Britain’s new defence minister Dan Jarvis.
His predecessor resigned in protest against low government spending on defence.
Hegseth said it was “a good meeting,” stressing that “the US-British defence alliance is an important one.”
He praised Jarvis for having first-hand experience of serving in a combat zone.
But he said “the message was the same: hey, we need you guys to step up and do even more, spend even more.”
He added:
If we need access and basing, whether it’s in the UK or say at Diego Garcia, we can’t live in a world where other countries are standing at the end of a runway with a clipboard trying to decide what flies and what doesn’t. It’s not gonna, it’s not gonna work for us. It’s not good in contingencies, and I don’t think it’s what he wants either.
He continued saying that “the more the UK spends on defence, the stronger Nato is going to be, the stronger western civilization is, and that’s a good thing.”
“I think [it was] a good start to a relationship that we need to renew even more,” Hegseth said.
Jessica Murray
Meanwhile, Wes Streeting has said his plan to ban “private equity sharks” from the social care sector was removed from the Labour manifesto, as he accused the government of “overcautiousness” in reforming the industry.
In a Fabian Society report on how to create a national care service, Streeting said overhauling social care was “one of the defining challenges of our age” but an “absence of good political leadership” was holding back change.
“In opposition, social care became a victim of our overcautiousness, which prohibited policy ideas from being floated for fear of what the Tories might say,” he said. “My plan to boot private equity sharks out of social care was cut from the manifesto, as was a proposal for a royal commission. The same culture continued into government.”
The private equity policy was first announced in 2022 and would have banned firms that failed to meet national standards in care, workers’ rights and financial sustainability.
A Labour source said Keir Starmer’s team took the policy out of the manifesto because they were worried it looked “anti-business”.
Why is there so much interest in a byelection in north-west England?
Peter Walker
An election that could shape the future of UK politics for years to come is taking place on Thursday. But it is only happening in one small part of north-west England, with little more than 70,000 people eligible to vote.
Why? It is a question with a number of answers, some connected to the structure of the British political system, others much more topical.
Voters in Makerfield, a largely suburban constituency on the edge of Wigan, Greater Manchester, are choosing a new MP after the incumbent stood down. The candidate for the ruling Labour party and favourite to win, Andy Burnham, is the mayor of Greater Manchester and a former MP.
If Burnham wins, it is widely assumed that he will launch a campaign to unseat Keir Starmer as Labour leader and thus UK prime minister, or persuade Starmer to stand down. If things go as expected, the UK could have its seventh prime minister since 2017 in just a few weeks or months.
Read our full explainer here:
How quickly could Andy Burnham become the UK’s prime minister?
Peter Walker
Those who don’t pay much attention to politics could be forgiven for not being fully on top of this, but the UK could have a new prime minister soon – potentially within weeks.
So how quickly could Andy Burnham replace Keir Starmer, if Burnham wins Thursday’s Makerfield byelection? Actually, quite quickly, but only if events go in a particular way. And there are plenty of alternate outcomes.
The Labour party rulebook sets out that if an MP wants to challenge a sitting party leader, they must first be nominated by at least 20% of the parliamentary party (currently 81 MPs), as well as by at least 5% of all local branches or at least three party-affiliated groups, of which a minimum of two must be unions.
Any contenders who meet the threshold go forward to a vote of party members, assuming there is more than one challenger.
It also says that if a sitting leader is challenged, they do not need to meet these requirements and are automatically in the members’ vote – if they choose to do so.
There is a scenario in which Burnham is elected as Makerfield’s MP, Starmer decides he will step down immediately – perhaps after a mass of senior cabinet ministers tell him they will resign if he does not – and no other challengers come forward.
Dogs stun as owners head to the polls in Makerfield byelection
In our opening post, I did promise you some dogs at polling stations.
And reader, pictures of our four-legged friends exercising their democratic right have been flooding in from the various news agencies.
Here are the highlights so far:
Stay tuned for more dogs, more polling stations and more pictures of both as the day rolls on.
Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos
Pippa Crerar
Andy Burnham’s campaign has been forced to talk ministers out of resigning as early as this weekend to avoid Keir Starmer’s government descending into chaos amid fallout from the Makerfield byelection, the Guardian can reveal.
As they prepare for a potential change of leader in the event he beats Reform on Thursday, Burnham’s team is increasingly concerned a rapid collapse of Starmer’s administration would mean further instability for the country.
Senior campaign figures believe Starmer should be given time to set out a timetable for his departure, with Burnham not planning to announce any challenge in the immediate aftermath of the result.
However, some ministers are “trigger happy” and have already proactively offered to quit, Burnham allies revealed, suggesting that several below cabinet level could resign over the coming days to try to pressurise Starmer.
“We’re trying to hold that back. We can’t have a Boris Johnson-style collapse. If they’re trying to force Keir’s hand with a kamikaze approach it will ultimately be counterproductive,” a senior campaign figure said.
The prime minister has insisted he will fight any challenge, believing he has a duty to the country, even though some of his closest allies predict the leadership crisis may reach a tipping point where he has no option but to stand down.
Starmer’s allies have discussed a “100m hurdles” strategy which involves throwing obstacles in Burnham’s way – such as the danger of losing the Manchester mayoralty, the fragile geopolitical situation and potentially a job offer.
Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.
Labour campaigners fear hordes of MPs may annoy public as Makerfield votes
Jessica Elgot
Up to 3,000 Labour campaigners are expected to descend on Makerfield for Andy Burnham, prompting fears among organisers that the hordes of activists may end up overwhelming voters during Thursday’s byelection.
Local hotels are fully booked and party members are expected to be dispatched to polling stations, and to leaflet people waiting at bus stops and school gates to avoid swamping residents on their doorsteps.
Cabinet ministers are among the MPs who are expected to spend the day in the Greater Manchester constituency, where Burnham is seeking to defeat Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.
“There is only so many times we can knock on doors on polling day without people getting too annoyed,” one MP said.
Backers of Burnham are expected to use the sheer numbers of activists and MPs doorstepping in Makerfield as proof that the mayor of Greater Manchester can re-energise the party to beat Reform UK – where the momentum will be crucial for him to then seek to immediately replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Some MPs and ministers arriving to campaign in the constituency over the past week are said to have sometimes been taken aback that there is little public-facing for them to do apart from dispatching leaflets through letterboxes. “There were just too many of them,” one said.
The campaign estimates that the number of volunteers – including hundreds of MPs – has meant each door in the constituency has been knocked at least six or seven times.
Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon has visited St Aidan’s Parish Centre in Wigan, accompanied by party leader Nigel Farage, to cast his vote in today’s byelection.
Kenyon was pictured wearing a replica England shirt (looks like Italia 90 to me, most closely associated with Gazza blubbing at the end of a hard-fought contest…), following last night’s World Cup win for Thomas Tuchel’s men.
Polls open in Makerfield for historic byelection that could determine Keir Starmer’s future
Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.
The people of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside of Wigan, have at last begun voting in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.
Since Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a clear run at returning to parliament – and the opportunity to become prime minister – residents have been inundated with party campaigners and reporters.
Yesterday Burnham urged people to “vote to change politics” and said he would take the “fight as high as I can possibly take it”.
But, despite the seat being considered one of Labour’s safest (it has been red since its creation in 1983), the governing party face a stiff challenge in the shape of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Although the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s campaign has been bogged down with the revelation of historic sexist social media post and, shall we say, less than impressive media performances under scrutiny, pollsters have the contest a close run thing.
It comes as Starmer on Wednesday said he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, should Burnham win when Thursday’s votes are counted.
But allies of Burnham said he was not interested in the offer, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government’s failings”.
Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, rather than a leadership contest, which they believe would be damaging to the Labour party’s brand, according to the Times.
But the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and says that he will fight any challenge to his leadership.
What is certain is that the next 24 hours will prove to be a pivotal moment for this Labour government and, in particular, the prime minister.
Please be aware that the Guardian, like other news outlets, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while polls are still open today – they close at 10pm.
But you can follow our blog for all the latest in UK politics, as well as I am sure plenty of photos of dogs at polling stations. Because, let’s face it, that really is the true meaning of any British election.
