See ya, September.
Gladly.
With this week’s NFL games, the first of October, it’s time to put the stink of my picks in September away. It wasn’t great.
I went 8-8 straight up last week and 6-9-1 against the spread. That brings my straight-up record to 29-19 for the season. My ATS mark is a dismal 21-26-1.
Let’s just say I am happy October is here.
The first two weeks of October are when we start getting a true gauge on the NFL teams. We find out who is a contender or pretender.
That makes it a little easier to pick games. I hope anyway.
The goal now is to get over .500 ATS. Then it’s time to act like a contender.
Let’s go.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
Can you believe this is a big game in the AFC North? Both teams are 2-1 and the Browns are one of the surprise teams so far. The Steelers looked good last week, beating the Bengals, but the Browns have played well against them in Cleveland. Upset special. Browns get to 3-1.
Pick: Browns 21, Steelers 20
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (+3.5)
Both teams won for the first time last week and now head to London to play this week. Then Colts defense showed improvement last week, while the Commanders defense made some big plays. Look for the Colts and Commanders to both score a lot, but it’s the Colts who will win it late.
Pick: Colts 31, Commanders 30
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Patriots are on the road for the second straight week and they are coming off a bad showing at Jacksonville. Drake Maye is struggling. That will continue here. Josh Allen gets back on track after a so-so game last week. Bills win it,
Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 17
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Jets are playing on the road for the second straight week, while the Bears are playing on a short week. Chicago looked good in blowing out the Eagles Monday night. It looks like Tyson Bagent will be in at quarterback. Look for Chicago to keep rolling as they get to 3-1.
Pick: Bears 23, Jets 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are back home after two weeks on the road, losing to the Steelers last week. The Jaguars beat up the Patriots last week, but this is a tougher challenge with Joe Burrow and that passing game. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense, but that won’t hold up here. Bengals take it.
Pick: Bengals 23, Jaguars 17
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants
The Giants didn’t do a lot on offense in the victory over the Titans last week, but the weather was brutal. The Cardinals are coming off a road loss to the 49ers, but they did some good things in that game. Against a lesser opponent than San Francisco, I think Arizona will find a way to win it.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Giants 21
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Eagles looked awful Monday night in the loss to the Bears, while the Rams blew a lead at Denver Sunday night. This is a long trip to try and make up for that. The Rams play well on the East Coast, but I think this will be an Eagles team that is refocused. They take a close one.
Pick: Eagles 30, Rams 27
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
These two are hurting right now in a lot of spots, but the Bucs will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield. That means rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start. That’s a challenge, even at home. Look for Jordan Love to play better here as the Packers get a much-needed victory.
Pick: Packers 27, Bucs 21
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
This is the Derrick Henry Revenge game. The Titans let him walk three seasons ago, and Baltimore is glad they did. Look for Henry to be the focal point of the offense. The Titans are lifeless right now on offense and they are playing back-to-back road games. This won’t be pretty.
Pick: Ravens 33, Titans 14
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The schedule-maker didn’t do the Cowboys any favors by putting them out on the road after the loss to the Ravens in Brazil. The 0-3 Texans are home for the third time in three weeks. The defense was better last week and I think that will be the difference here. The Texans’ offense will be better than it has been in recent games, too.
Pick: Texans 24, Cowboys 18
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This is a challenging road game as the Dolphins face that tough Minnesota defense, led by former Dolphins coach Brian Flores. You know he will be amped to play the team that fired him. The Miami offense will be without star runner De’Von Achane, which will make it even more challenging. Look for that Vikings defense to get some takeaways to lead to points. Vikings big.
Pick: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a battle of undefeated teams. Few saw that coming. Both teams are coming off road victories. These games are always fun to watch, with the rivalry being what it is. But the Chiefs will win this as Patrick Mahomes has a big day.
Pick: Chiefs 29, Raiders 24
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Broncos are coming off an impressive comeback victory over the Rams Sunday night. The 49ers have rolled to a 3-0 record behind Brock Purdy. Look for that to continue here. Purdy has a big day as the 49ers stay undefeated.
Pick: 49ers 28, Broncos 21
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
The Chargers are 0-3 and coming off a long trip in losing to the Bills. The Seahawks were upset last week by the Commanders. That will get their attention, which won’t be a good thing for the Chargers. Look for that Seattle defense to come up big against Justin Herbert.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Chargers 20
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Panthers are really banged up and Bryce Young is hurting to go with a bunch of other injuries. They played short-handed in the loss to the Browns last week. The Lions won a high-scoring game with the Jets Sunday and this one will be just like it. Look for Jared Goff to play well here as the Lions win a road game.
Pick: Lions 31, Panthers 26
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at New Orleans Saints
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Falcons impressed last Thursday in blowing out Green Bay on the road. Getting Michael Penix back at quarterback matters. They will continue to give it to Bijan Robinson in this one. The Saints will get theirs behind Tyler Shough. It’s high scoring, and the Falcons will win it.
Pick: Falcons 33, Saints 30
