www.theguardian.com
Are the polls ‘improbably tight’? Some experts think so
Robert Tait
The US presidential election campaign enters its final weekend with polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in seemingly permanent deadlock and few clues as to which of them will prevail on Tuesday.
At the end of another unruly week that began with Trump’s racially charged rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden and was punctuated by celebrity endorsements, misogynistic comments and insults about “garbage” being levelled left and right, the Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed little change from seven days earlier, with voter loyalty to their chosen candidate appearing relatively impervious to campaign events, however seismic.
Nationally, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has a one-point advantage, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, virtually identical to last week. Such an advantage is well with the margin of error of most polls.
The battleground states, too, remain in a dead heat. The candidates are evenly tied at 48% in Pennsylvania, often seen as the most important swing state because it has the most electoral votes (19). Harris has single-point leads in the two other blue-wall states, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is marginally ahead in the Sun belt: up by 1% in North Carolina and 2% in Georgia and Arizona. In Nevada, his average advantage in the polls is less than a percentage point.
Writing on NBC’s website, Josh Clinton, a politics professor at Vanderbilt University, and John Lapinski, the network’s director of elections, pondered whether the tied race reflected not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters. Some, they suggested, may be wary of findings indicating unusually large leads for one candidate and introduce corrective weighting.
Of the last 321 polls in the battlegrounds, 124 – nearly 40% – showed margins of a single point or less, the pair wrote. Pennsylvania was the most “troubling” case, with 20 out of 59 polls showing an exact tie, while another 26 showed margins of less than 1%.
This indicated “not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race”, according to Clinton and Lapinski.
Read the full piece here:
Key events
Campaigning in Scottsdale, Arizona, JD Vance has called on voters to “make this thing too big to rig”. He focused much of his remarks on immigration, an issue that is central to many Arizona voters.
In a new video, actor Harrison Ford has endorsed Kamala Harris.
“Look, I’ve been voting for 64 years. Never wanted to talk about it very much,” Ford said, before referencing the former Trump administration officials who’ve denounced the ex-president.
“I’ve got one vote – same as anyone else – and I’m going to use it to move forward. I’m going to vote for Kamala Harris.”
WATCH >> Harrison Ford lays it out
“The truth is this, Kamala Harris will protect your right to disagree with her about policies or ideas, and then, as we have done for centuries, we’ll debate them. We’ll work on them together, and we’ll move forward.”
— James Singer (@Jemsinger) November 2, 2024
Donald Trump Jr has concluded speaking ahead of JD Vance in Scottsdale, Arizona. In his remarks, the ex-president’s son echoed misinformation his father has spread regarding Fema relief efforts following hurricanes Helene and Milton, Haitian immigrants, Hunter Biden and the media. He also implied that Democrats had tried to assassinate his father in July, and encouraged attendees to make sure their friends voted Republican down-ballot.
Kamala Harris’ rally in Charlotte, North Carolina has otherwise proceeded much like her other campaign events, with the vice-president delivering a familiar version of her stump speech. She’s encouraged attendees to make a plan for voting if they haven’t done so already.
“We need everyone to vote, North Carolina. You all will make the difference in this election.”
JD Vance is currently campaigning at a gun store in Scottsdale, Arizona alongside Donald Trump Jr.
“We have the opportunity to put not just my father in the White House, but have you seen the team around him,” Trump said from the stage at Dillon Precision, touting roles his father has promised Robert F Kennedy Jr, Tulsi Gabbard and Elon Musk.
The scene here in Scottsdale, Arizona where JD Vance and Don Jr are set to speak to several hundred fans and make a final pitch to voters in this crucial swing state pic.twitter.com/UOz6ykWu5h
— Christal Hayes (@Journo_Christal) November 2, 2024
Kamala Harris’s rally in Charlotte was briefly interrupted by pro-Palestine protestors.
“One of the reasons we are here is because we are fighting for a democracy, and the right of people to speak their mind, but right now I am speaking,” Harris said. “Democracy can be complicated, it’s all right. This is what democracy looks like.”
Several protestors just escorted out of the Harris rally here yelling “STOP BOMBING ISRAEL.”
— Kellie Meyer (@KellieMeyerNews) November 2, 2024
Kamala Harris is speaking at her second rally of the day, this time in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Ahead of her appearance, Roy Cooper, the state’s governor, urged Republicans and independents to vote for the vice-president.
“Listen to the ultraconservative, well-respected leaders who worked with Donald Trump,” Cooper said, referencing longtime Republicans like Liz Cheney who’ve endorsed Harris. “He is a danger to our country, and he should never be president again.”
National guard on standby across the country – report
Preparing for potential social unrest ahead of Tuesday’s election, the national guard is on standby in at least three states and Washington DC, CNN reports.
In Washington, governor Jay Inslee has announced that the national guard is on standby following recent ballot box fires there. Meanwhile, in neighboring Oregon, governor Tina Kotek says the national guard is prepared to respond to potential uncertainty, following another ballot box fire in Portland. And in Nevada, governor Joe Lombardo says 60 troops are prepared to oversee a “safe and smooth election day”.
Meanwhile, law enforcement is preparing for election day in Washington DC, where more than 3,000 police officers will work in 12-hour shifts.
Tim Walz is campaigning this afternoon in Flagstaff, Arizona, alongside interior secretary Deb Haaland. The city, which is located just outside the borders of the Navajo Nation, is also home to Northern Arizona University. Walz, whose lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, will become the first female Indigenous governor in the United States if he and Harris are elected Tuesday, has focused many of his campaign stops on Native voters in Arizona, including by visiting the capital of the Navajo Nation last week.
Speaking ahead of Walz, Haaland evoked her childhood growing up in a pueblo household and encouraged attendees to “as Coach would say, leave it all on the field”. Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez was also in attendance.
“The sovereignty of our Indigenous tribes is paramount,” Walz said, noting his recent visit to Window Rock, Arizona, before encouraging voters to get to the polls. “We get to shape not just the next four years, but generations to come.”
Women’s march begins in Washington DC
As the Women’s March in Washington DC kicks off, women and supporters are gathering across the country in the 8th annual march since the 21 January 2017 march spurred by Donald Trump’s inauguration and the Access Hollywood tapes.
Here’s the latest from around the country:
We’re not going back!!! Had a great time at the Women’s March in Tuscaloosa rallying to get out the vote. Great to meet this future voter who knows what’s possible when we as women and girls use our power! 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/E3BGH9roJa
— Terri A. Sewell (@Sewell4Congress) November 2, 2024
After starting the morning side by side on the tarmac in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Kamala Harris’s and Donald Trump’s planes are now lined up once again in Charlotte, North Carolina. Both candidates are criss-crossing the country in a final blitz of campaign stops before Tuesday’s election.
Good morning from the Milwaukee airport, where Trump’s plane and Air Force Two are parked quite close to each other on the tarmac pic.twitter.com/omp3kOVdkh
— Kate Sullivan (@KateSullivanDC) November 2, 2024
Sam Levine
Visiting the carpenter’s union in Scranton this afternoon, Joe Biden used some of the unvarnished language that has come to endear him to many Americans (and gotten him in some hot water lately).
Speaking about Republicans who want to repeal the Affordable Care Act and the Chips Act, as well as cut social security, Biden said: “These are the kinds of guys you like to smack in the ass,” according to a White House pool report.
.@POTUS, back at the Carpenters Hall in Scranton, warns GOP wants to repeal the ACA & CHIPS, cut Social Security so they can cut taxes for wealthy again. “These are the kinds of guys you like to smack in the ass.” pic.twitter.com/waBLjnXuWc
— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 2, 2024
