Just one first-round matchup in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket features two mid-majors, No. 3 Gonzaga facing No. 14 Kennesaw State in the West Region. Many will go with chalk and pencil in the Zags into the second round with their 2026 March Madness predictions, but you can’t overlook the Owls. They rallied after their best player was suspended due to suspected point-shaving to win the Conference USA Tournament. They also put up over 80 points per game and rank 12th in the nation with 5.3 blocks.
Every other mid-major in the 2026 March Madness bracket is facing a power conference team in its opener. While many love the idea of March Madness Cinderella picks having lengthy tournament runs, rarely do they make it beyond the second weekend. Which mid-majors have the best chances of representing their region in the Final Four? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and 6-seeded North Carolina. The tourney prospects of UNC dimmed when it lost star freshman Caleb Wilson for the season on Feb. 10. Including the game in which he got hurt, Carolina posted just a 1-4 record away from home without him. It’s hard to replace someone who led the team in points, rebounds, steals and blocks while ranking second in assists.
VCU is the type of team that could exploit Wilson’s absence, as few squads can light it up from beyond the arc like the Rams. Their top five scorers all connect on at least 35% from downtown, including 6-foot-10 Lazar Djokovic, who is shooting over 50% from the field. VCU sports a 16-1 record over its last 17 games, swept both the A-10 regular season and conference tournament, and is poised to knock off a Blue Blood in the NCAA Tournament.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary’s. Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan got his start as a high school coach in Alabama while Gaels head coach Randy Bennett has been in charge of the Gaels since 2001. However, this game will likely be decided by which team dictates the tempo, with Texas A&M ranking 29th in adjusted possessions per 40 minutes and Saint Mary’s ranking 297th.
In their only matchup against an SEC opponent this season, the Gaels gave up 96 points to Vanderbilt in a loss and the Commodores also play fast an efficiently offensively. Saint Mary’s was also only 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season and the Aggies constitute an extremely tough first-round matchup after a great season in the WCC. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
