We are live tracking the new Tropical Storm Rafael that has formed in the Caribbean – the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It is forecast to become a hurricane in the coming days and cross western Cuba before it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The impact along the Gulf Coast is probable over the next weekend.
Note: This post is regularly updated as the system evolves. The most recent update is always at the top of the article. Feel free to bookmark the link and stay tuned.
Tropical depression winds found; the system is expected to become tropical storm Rafael soon
Update: Nov 4th, 19:00 UTC
Recent data from the NOAA Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and surface observations indicate that the low-pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and produces organized deep convection.
Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression and continues organizing. The maximum flight-level winds from the aircraft support steady the initial wind speed at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing near the center and in bands around it, especially in the south and
east sides of the circulation.
Weather model guidance brings hurricane Rafael across western Cuba on Wednesday and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night into Thursday.
Most of the guidance agrees with the potential for a strong Category 1 hurricane, possibly nearing Category 2 near Cuba.
More data will be available for weather models as new NOAA planes are scheduled in the coming days. Favorable oceanic and environmental conditions undoubtedly support the further development of the system.
The recent infrared, visible, and water vapor satellite scans indicate that the system is gradually being organized.
A new tropical system develops in the Caribbean and heads for Cuba and the Gulf
Update: Nov 4th, 16:00 UTC
On Monday, a tropical depression in the Caribbean gradually strengthened due to the still very high water temperatures, low upper-level winds, and shear environment.
This suggests that conditions are in place for further strengthening of the system.
Weather models suggest that the system will become a tropical storm tonight or as late as Tuesday morning before it travels to the west of Jamaica.
Hurricane and Tropical storm watches and warnings have already been issued ahead of the emerging storm. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and are possible in portions of Cuba early Wednesday.
Windy, Tropical Tidbits> and CyclonicWX provided images to use in this article.
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