Key events
So the ominous stat is that Ireland are undefeated in their last 30 Six Nations matches at home when leading at the break. Can Scotland defy history? The teams run back on to the pitch – a quick blast of Daft Punk.
Scotland need to cut out the mistakes in the second half, that’s a given. Too many turnovers. The visitors must make more of the ball when they do get it.
For Ireland? More of the same, but they will want to make their pressure count. This is still just a 12-point game as it stands. That, you don’t need me to tell you, is a far from insurmountable lead.
So is it after the lord mayor’s show for Scotland following that epic display against France? Impossible to reach the same levels again?
Maybe, but I don’t think that gives enough credit to Ireland’s performance in the first 40 mins. They didn’t just overpower Scotland, they outplayed them, too.
The passing for Scotland’s try was a delight but the move to put in Rob Baloucoune to dive over for try No 3 was equally breathless stuff.
HALF-TIME: Ireland 19-7 Scotland
A green mountain for Scotland to climb in the second half. The whistle goes with the hosts largely in control.
39 min: Huw Jones’s short Russell goes awry, Sione Tuipulotu knocks it forward. Those little things are just going wrong for Scotland right now; they were going so right against France.
38 min: An Irish knock-on relieves the pressure. Scotland’s scrum just inside their own half.
37 min: Ewan Ashman is down for treatment. He’s a replacement himself, of course … but he’s OK to play on. Ireland’s ball. Scotland will want to get to half-time now.
36 min: A Grant Gilchrist hand stops a Tadhg Furlong pass. Ireland’s lineout. Stuart McCloskey breaks through the Scotland’ ranks, he’s been a real threat.
34 min: Ireland spread play from the scrum but it breaks free, a handling error and Scotland look to pounce – Kinghorn is almost through with nothing between him and the tryline! Josh van der Flier is there, however, to make a big last-ditch tackle.
33 min: Kinghorn wins possession back and Scotland look to spread play – but a forward pass from Jack Dempsey undoes their passing game before it can really get started. Just not clicking at the moment for Scotland.
30 min: Scotland’s turn to attack, but Ireland’s defence is looking solid. The hosts win the penalty and Tadhg Beirne and Furlong grin in unison. They’re loving this.
28 min: An Ireland scrum near their own line, they get rid of the ball – and it’s Scotland’s lineout near the halfway. They claim it, can they get an attack going?
27 min: Scotland drive towards the line but Sheehan dives in to snatch it, great work. He’s having a great half so far.
26 min: Dan Sheehan does really well to keep Russell’s kick in play. The hosts come again, they’re dominating possession – but Scotland get the turnover. They don’t want the three points, they kick for the corner.
24 min: Furlong bulldozes forward. Scotland are gradually being pushed backwards, but Tommy O’Brien is pulled up for obstruction. Scotland look to relieve the pressure.
22 min: A bit of back-and-forth and it’s another Ireland lineout. Yep, they win it again. They’re going to test the Scottish defence once more.
21 min: Superstar stuff from Baloucoune, that. Now, Ireland win another lineout, they’ve dominated so far in that area. Scotland snaffle the ball back but Russell’s kick is charged down.
TRY! Ireland 19-7 Scotland (Baloucoune)
Ireland’s best try yet! The hosts spread the play after the scrum and send it out wide to Rob Baloucoune in acres of space – and he sprints over in the corner, evading Graham’s desperate lunge. Crowley sends a difficult kick just wide.
17 min: George Turner is “wobbling everywhere”, according to the referee, Luke Pearce. Rightly, he stops it for a HEA. Looks like Turner was caught by Zander Fagerson, an accident. Ewan Ashman is on for Turner. Ireland’s scrum as we restart.
16 min: Ireland turn it over at the maul. Ireland have had scrum problems in this Six Nations, but nothing like that in the early going today. They are on the move again with Gibson-Park.
15 min: What a high-octane game. It’s Scotland’s lineout near halfway. The action has barely let up.
14 min: Can Scotland copy a trick from Ireland – they can’t bull they’re way through but they’re passing, looking for openings. No! Russell loses it and Ringrose picks it up.
12 min: It’s blow for blow so far, can Scotland respond again? They have a penalty, the Irish captain Doris adjudged to have kicked the ball out of a Scottish hand. Russell’s kick is sublimely accurate into the corner.
TRY! Ireland 14-7 Scotland (Sheehan)
Irish power. They win the lineout and the maul edges towards the Scotland’s line – Dan Sheehan grabs the ball, and darts over. Irish skill too! And Crowley nails a difficult conversion.
9 min: And breathe … or not. Darcy Graham is over the ball and gives away a penalty in Scotland’s half. Crowley kicks for the corner again, it’s another accurate one.
TRY! Ireland 7-7 Scotland (Graham)
Scotland are definitely not rattled – they’re up and running! A wonderful, 19-phase passing move spreads the pitch, it eventually finds Darcy Graham in the corner and he goes over. Class! Russell converts from out side. What a start.
6 min: Scotland have the ball and they spray it around, they don’t appear rattled as they probe for space – going through the phases. A lovely Russell pass finds Turner.
TRY! Ireland 7-0 Scotland (Osborne)
What a start for Ireland! They win the lineout, nice passing, some power and they find Osborne in space and he seals his red-hot start with a sprint and a simple try. Crowley’s kick is good, right in front of the posts. My oh my.
2 min: Zander Fagerson goes up in the scrum and it’s a penalty, advantage Ireland – they kick to the corner and have the lineout.
1 min: Osborne makes an early run at the Scotland defence, eliciting a roar from the crowd. He’s rebuffed. A knock-on is called and we have our first scrum.
Kick-off!
Scotland receive as we get started – we are under way.
Flower of Scotland is sung by some focused-looking, blue-shirted players. It gets a generous round of applause in the stands. Amhrán na bhFiann is followed by Ireland’s Call – belted out by the lads in green. Applause again. Nicely done. Kick-off is next!
Simon McMahon has emailed. “Hi Alex. You’re dead right,” he says. “For both these teams, the permutations are irrelevant unless/until they win.
“I’m reminded of the great Brian Clough’s rallying cry to his Nottingham Forest team ahead of their first European Cup final – I don’t care how you do it, just win.”
Wise words, Simon/Brian.
Fireworks, full house and, erm, Fatboy Slim blaring – the teams are on the field.
The anthems will follow shortly. Oh, after the two teams meet the Irish president, Catherine Connolly, who gets ready to make 30 handshakes. She’s a pro at this.
Who are the key players for both sides today? I’m going to be Captain Obvious and say Scotland’s magician Finn Russell and Ireland’s majestic Jamison Gibson-Park.
Now, a No 10 and a scrum-half, so not exactly an on-pitch head-to-head. But if Russell is getting plenty of ball in hand, Scotland’s attack will likely be flowing; if Gibson-Park is the name you keep hearing, it’s probably Ireland’s style of match.
The teams are in the tunnel, about to come on to the pitch!
It looks a gorgeous day in Dublin. Blue skies, no sign of rain. Perfect. The players are on the pitch, warming up – zipping the ball around. We’re 20 minutes from the start.
Permutations time – yes, it’s why we’re all here! Three teams can win the Six Nations today. Here’s the top three:
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1. France W 3, L 1, BP 4, PD +79, Pts 16
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2. Scotland W 3, L 1, BP 4, PD +21, Pts 16
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3. Ireland W 3, L 1, BP 2, PD +16, Pts 14
Now, I’m not really going to do a permutations deep dive (you can read the full variables here). The bonus-point situation makes it complex.
The only calculation Ireland and Scotland need today: win. Then, if you do that and claim the Triple Crown, hope England do you a favour against France. The extent of that favour depends on whether Ireland and Scotland win; if they get a bonus point, etc. But clarity of thought is vital. Just. Win.
Luke McLaughlin
A first Six Nations title is tantalisingly within reach – but Scotland are likely to face a familiar problem in Dublin. It doesn’t matter how good your backline is, or how well rehearsed your strike moves are if possession is cut off at source.
France were curiously lacklustre in defence at Murrayfield but Andy Farrell, the Ireland head coach, has reverted to the same selection as for England at Twickenham. We know how that turned out, and no team has suffered more in the face of Ireland’s considerable power than Scotland.
Ireland’s back row – particularly the captain Caelan Doris – were at their destructive best against England. If they can raise their collective intensity to similar levels, it will be a very difficult day for the visitors.
But Scotland’s captain, Sione Tuipulotu, explained on Friday why he believes this could be different. “I’ve come to the Aviva in the past where maybe it seemed a little bit more like hope [than expectation],” he said.
“Where our strength comes from as a team is the hard stuff we’ve been through. To be resilient in those times is what gives me the most confidence that we’ll be the best version of ourselves.”
So it’s three Scotland changes in Gregor Townsend’s starting XV. Zander Fagerson comes in at tighthead prop but, as mentioned, it’s the enforced all-new second row that Ireland may look to target – a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Williamson and Gilchrist.
For Ireland, Andy Farrell has made four swaps to his XV with hooker Dan Sheehan, lock Joe McCarthy and openside flanker Josh van der Flier returning to the forward pack. Tommy O’Brien is picked ahead of Jacob Stockdale on the left wing.
Next, I’m going to give you time to read Luke McLaughlin’s richly written preview before kick-off.
The teams
Ireland: Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Michael Milne, Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
Referee: Luke Pearce (Eng)
Preamble
Welcome to the start of Super Saturday! And a mouthwatering match between two teams with a chance of claiming the Six Nations title and both riding three-game winning streaks. Scotland are the talk of the tournament after putting seven tries on France, coming out on top of a 90-point thriller at Murrayfield. But this is Ireland, Scotland’s jinx side, in Dublin.
Scotland have lost their past 11 games against Ireland and last won away from home in 2010 (at Croke Park, rather than the Aviva Stadium). Yet Gregor Townsend’s side are reinvigorated and playing without fear. Who’d have thought a team that lost to Italy in round one would now be second in the table – level on points with leaders France – and playing for the Triple Crown and possibly the Six Nations championship this afternoon?
To counter soaring Scots’ optimism: the cold, hard reality of Ireland. While the Scottish side excelled in a wide-open game against Les Bleus, Irish physicality is something they have struggled with. And this is not the same side that dismantled the French, it’s an all-new second row with the injured duo Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings replaced by Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist. That is a tough break for the visitors.
Andy Farrell might be low-key happy (is he any other kind of happy?) that the focus was all on Scotland’s brilliance after round four. He is a master at motivating his players and can remind them that, for all that it’s been so-so Six Nations by Ireland’s high standards – aside from routing England at Twickenham – they stand just one win away from potentially lifting the trophy.
On that score, to add to today’s fun, we’ll have the unique experience of the winner of this game – providing there is one – fervently cheering on England as they look to stun France in Paris. But that’s for later. First up, it’s Ireland v Scotland – kick-off is at 2.10pm GMT.
