www.theguardian.com
Morning opening: Let’s talk about Viktor
Jakub Krupa
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels this morning for what was meant to be a discussion on the bloc’s competitiveness and economy, but “events, my dear boy, events” mean they will have to focus on Hungary’s ongoing spat with Ukraine and the Middle East instead.
Less than four weeks before a key parliamentary election in Hungary, Viktor Orbán will once again come under pressure to unblock the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine, which he is blocking over a dispute about the Druzhba pipeline.
But arriving in Brussels just a few minutes ago, Orbán has made it clear that he is not in a mood to compromise.
He said:
“We would like to get the oil which is ours from the Ukrainians and which is … blocked by the Ukrainians. I will never support any kind of decision here which is in favour of Ukraine [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belong to us.”
Asked if there is any other option to agree a way forward, he said: “No.”
“Sorry, no other option. We need it because it’s existential. What we are speaking about is not politics. It’s existential for Hungary to get the oil. … Without getting that oil, all the households, Hungarian companies will go to bankruptcy.
So you know, it’s not a joke, not a political game. Zelenskyy should understand it that this is not a game. This is absolutely existential for the Hungarians.”
The leaders will also have to discuss the situation in the Middle East amid growing concerns about the impact the conflict will have on Europe, including on energy prices.
Finland’s Petteri Orpo warned that Russia is the only beneficiary of this chaos and rising energy prices, as he urged leaders to step up pressure on Moscow.
He also pointedly criticised Orbán saying “he is using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign, and it’s not good.”
Orpo’s comments come just days after Belgium’s prime minister Bart de Wever appeared to suggest that the EU should look to improve its relationship with Moscow to get cheaper energy.
It should be a lively day in Brussels and I will bring you all the latest here.
It’s Thursday, 19 March 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
Key events
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‘We are the family’: low-budget thriller highlights Hungary’s election tension
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Even if Orbán loses in April, and that’s not certain, headaches he causes will not disappear with him – analysis
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German parliament moves to curb fuel prices in wake of Iran war
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Estonia summons Russian top diplomat over airspace violation
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Merz calls for de-escalation in Middle East, offers Europe’s help to stabilise region
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Macron condemns ‘reckless escalation’ in Middle East after Iranian strikes on Gulf energy sites
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Macron backs competitiveness push as he calls for de-escalation in Middle East
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European parliament’s trade committee votes to progress EU-US trade deal
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Czech Republic’s Babiš wants to talk competitiveness, ETS, energy impact of Middle East war
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EU experts arrive in Ukraine to check Druzhba pipeline, Kyiv says
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Russia ‘gaining from war in Middle East,’ Kallas says, as she accusses Orbán of not cooperating in good faith
-
Middle East crisis can take attention away from Ukraine, Lithuania’s Nausėda warns
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Dutch PM Jetten makes EU debut backing Ukraine, warning against Iran impact
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Morning opening: Let’s talk about Viktor
No international summit is complete without meetings on the sidelines and Italian president Giorgia Meloni met with German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever, according to a statement.
High on the agenda: energy prices.
There was a particular focus on the consequences of the Middle East conflict for the global energy market, as well as on the possible initiatives to be swiftly taken in order to curb the surge in energy prices. The priorities to be jointly promoted regarding simplification, the single market and investments were also discussed.
It comes after Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field – and Iran’s retaliatory attacks – sent gas and crude prices soaring overnight.
World leaders are attempting to tackle the energy crisis as the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Earlier, Germany’s parliament moved to restrict how often petrol stations can increase their prices.
Meanwhile Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox News that the US is considering removing sanctions from Iranian oil, arguing such a move would allow countries other than China accessing that oil.
You can read more about the importance of the waterway here:
‘We are the family’: low-budget thriller highlights Hungary’s election tension
Flora Garamvolgyi
in Budapest
It’s seven o’clock on a Tuesday night, and one of the most popular movie theatres in Budapest is full, not an empty seat in sight. The audience is not here for a Hollywood blockbuster, but a Hungarian film that barely had the budget to be made.
Feels Like Home (Itt Érzem Magam Otthon) has captured moviegoers not only with its striking visuals but also with its timing – its release coming before Hungary’s pivotal parliamentary elections on 12 April.
The psychological thriller tells the story of a saleswoman who is abducted into a family that follows the orders of an authoritarian father-figure, Papa, and whose members get privileges if they play by the rules. The main character, Rita, tries to escape, but finds that even outside everything seems to be owned by the family, so there is no point in asking for help.
The director, Gábor Holtai, says it was not his intention to create a metaphor for life in Hungary under Viktor Orbán, but that is certainly how it has been interpreted in the fevered final weeks of the election campaign.
Even if Orbán loses in April, and that’s not certain, headaches he causes will not disappear with him – analysis
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
While there is now a lot of attention on Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and the upcoming election in the central European country, Jon Henley notes that while the bloc’s foremost troublemaker could lose April’s election, the headaches he’s caused will not necessarily disappear with him.
Here is what he says:
“On 12 April, in what will almost certainly be the most consequential vote in (and for) Europe to be held this year, Hungarians are due to elect a new parliament and government – and for the past 15 months, Orbán has been trailing in the polls.
So will everything change? There are, unfortunately, several reasons why it may not.
First, Orbán may not actually lose. …
Second, if Orbán does lose, especially by a narrow margin, he could simply refuse to step down, leaving the EU facing what the European Policy Centre thinktank calls “an unprecedented situation: an illegal and illegitimate government sitting at the table”. …
Finally, even if Magyar wins and Orbán accepts defeat, it is unclear exactly what the new PM will be able to do.”
Read Jon’s analysis here:
German parliament moves to curb fuel prices in wake of Iran war
Deborah Cole
in Berlin
Germany’s parliament is taking unusual action to curb fuel prices in the wake of a spike from the Iran war.
Under a draft law set for approval by the Bundestag lower house on Thursday, petrol stations will only be able raise prices once a day, at 12 midday. They may be reduced at any time. Businesses violating the rule can be fined up to €100,000.
Watch for angry scenes in the queue at 11.55 am.
After topping the list of EU countries with the highest rise in pump prices early on, Germany remains among the countries whose motorists are bearing the biggest brunt of the surge.
Compared to the week before the US-Israeli military action, prices had increased by 27 cents per litre for petrol and 42 cents for diesel, above the EU average of 20 cents/litre for petrol and 36 cents for diesel, according to EU Commission figures compiled by Monopolkommission, an independent economic advisory body to the German government.
It attributed the rapid rise in fuel prices in Germany to heavy market concentration.
The legislation before the Bundestag will also give the Federal Cartel Office expanded powers to fight price gouging.
Armand Zorn, deputy chair of the Social Democrats parliamentary group, accused the industry of profiteering.
“We do not have a supply problem in Germany, but a clear pricing problem,” he told Bild newspaper. In hardly any other European country had such steep profits been made at the expense of consumers during the crisis, Zorn said.
But market watchers are divided whether the high noon rule, due to go into effect in early April for at least a year after passing the Bundesrat upper house, will do much to help consumers.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) criticised the planned tightening of antitrust law and the speed with which it is being pushed through.
“The federal government is introducing far-reaching and risky changes to competition law through a rushed fast-track procedure,” said Holger Lösch, deputy chief executive of the BDI. He said that was creating uncertainty among businesses and jeopardising investment across sectors.
“Without involving industry and without a broad public debate, rules are being changed under the pressure of high fuel prices that go far beyond the current situation and would permanently alter the playing field for all companies,” Lösch said. “This intervention in competition law threatens to do a disservice to the entire economy in terms of regulatory policy.”
Prices in recent weeks had been particularly volatile as well as generally elevated so advocates cite a calming effect that will kick in simply due to more predictability and transparency.
The stakes are high for the ruling coalition partners, chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats.
The parties are running neck-and-neck in a key state election on Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate, two weeks after the CDU lost to the Greens in the car manufacturing region of Baden-Württemberg by a whisker.
The parlous state of the German economy, the EU’s biggest, and inflation fears driven by the Iran war and US tariffs will be at the front of voters’ minds.
Jakub Krupa
The Brussels summit is under way behind the closed doors, but we will bring you regular updates from the room where it happens if and when we get them.
In the meantime, I will bring you all the latest stories from around Europe.
Estonia summons Russian top diplomat over airspace violation
Meanwhile, Estonia has summoned the Russian charge d’affaires after a Russian fighter jet violated the Baltic country’s airspace on Wednesday, Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said.
The violation occurred near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland, off Estonia’s northern coast, where a Russian SU-30 fighter aircraft entered Estonian airspace and remained for around one minute, Estonia’s foreign ministry said.
“The violation was responded to by a unit of the Italian air force, and there was no threat to Estonia’s security,” Tsahkna said.
Merz calls for de-escalation in Middle East, offers Europe’s help to stabilise region
Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz also called for de-escalation in the Middle East, welcoming what he said were signals by US president Donald Trump that combat action in Iran could come to an end, which could allow Europe to contribute to securing peace in the region.
“I am expressly grateful that the US president sent a signal in this regard last night that he is prepared to bring the fighting to an end,” he told reporters ahead of an EU summit in Brussels in comments reported by Reuters.
Obviously, since then Trump has changed his narrative a bit again…
Either way, Merz reiterated that Europe is ready to help stabilise the Middle East once combat action has stopped.
Macron condemns ‘reckless escalation’ in Middle East after Iranian strikes on Gulf energy sites
Macron also condemned the latest Iranian attacks on Gulf energy sites as “reckless escalation.”
He warned that if Middle Eastern energy “production capacities themselves are destroyed, this war will have a much more lasting impact,” calling for “direct talks between the Americans and Iranians on this matter.”
Macron backs competitiveness push as he calls for de-escalation in Middle East
France’s Emmanuel Macron is the latest leader to offer his thoughts on arrival in Brussels, backing calls to simplify the EU’s rulebooks and push to increase the bloc’s competitiveness.
He says France wants “more simplification” and to “deepen the European single market,” with more investment “particularly in innovation, research and technology.”
He also calls for a diversification of “our partnerships, which is essential in the current geopolitical context.”
He also pointedly talks about the need to do more on foreign interference with elections, bringing up the upcoming Slovenian elections this weekend, stressing “Europeans absolutely must mobilise to protect our democracies from this interference.”
On Ukraine and Hungary, he says that the decision made in December “must be implemented” and hopes that progress can be made on this today.
On the Middle East crisis, he repeats his public call from last night after his phone calls with US president Donald Trump and the Emir of Qatar to de-escalate and prevent energy sites from being destroyed.
European parliament’s trade committee votes to progress EU-US trade deal
Lisa O’Carroll
Meanwhile, the European parliamentary trade committee has voted to progress legislation to ratify last summer’s trade deal with Donald Trump ending months of delays.
It means the deal, which sees 15% tariffs on most exports from the EU, will now go for a full vote at the European parliament.
The 15% tariffs were ruled illegal by the US supreme court but much of the deal relates to tariffs that were imposed under different laws which were not examined by the American judges and still pertain.
These include 15% tariffs on cars and 50% on steel.
In exchange for a deal, the EU agreed to improve access for US agriculture produce and buy $750m worth of energy from the US over three years.
The trade committee had blocked progress earlier this year, freezing talks following Trump’s threat to take control of Greenland.
Its latest vote also came following concessions promissed by the US including a reduction in the list of products that faced 50% tariff for any steel content.
The so-called steel derivatives on everything from knitting needles to wind turbines and aluminium doors were considered a breach of the good faith deal and the EU had consistently been lobbying the US adminstration to remove what they considered tariffs by stealth.
Czech Republic’s Babiš wants to talk competitiveness, ETS, energy impact of Middle East war
Czech Republic’s prime minister Andrej Babiš comes for this morning’s summit with a different focus as he primarily wants to talk competitiveness and reforming the EU Emissions Trading System.
Asked about his views on Viktor Orbán’s block, he says “this is his issue, not mine.”
“I am here to fight for the European industry, and we are losing time,” he says.
He also talks about the impact of the Middle East crisis on Europe, not just on energy prices, but also on fertiliser and ammonia supplies. “Everything is blocked,” he warns.
EU experts arrive in Ukraine to check Druzhba pipeline, Kyiv says
Meanwhile, European Union experts have arrived in Ukraine to assess the condition of the Druzhba oil pipeline, state energy firm Naftogaz said, after its closure caused a row with Hungary that is blocking an EU loan to Kyiv, Reuters reported.
The EU last week proposed sending a mission to inspect the pipeline. Ukraine later said it had accepted the EU offer of technical support and funding to restore oil flows through the damaged pipeline.
Hungary and Slovakia have been cut off from Russian oil deliveries via Druzhba since late January, after Kyiv said a Russian strike hit pipeline equipment in western Ukraine and would require time for repairs.
And Hungary’s Viktor Orbán repeatedly said he would continue to block all decisions in favour of Ukraine until the pipeline gets fixed.
Russia ‘gaining from war in Middle East,’ Kallas says, as she accusses Orbán of not cooperating in good faith
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has similarly warned that Russia is “gaining from the war in the Middle East,” as she called for ‘an exit from this war, not an escalation.”
On Hungary, she said she was “not very optimistic” that something can be agreed with Viktor Orbán. “There are alternatives,” she said, but added that “it also needs political courage from all of us.”
She also accused Orbán of not cooperating with the EU in good faith, meaning the EU needs to figure out a way to “force the implementation of the agreement we made in December.”
Kallas said other EU leaders and foreign ministers were “very strongly” critical of Hungary and pushing for a solution, but warned that “at the time of elections, people are not that rational” with Orbán facing the biggest test of his 16-year rule next month.
Middle East crisis can take attention away from Ukraine, Lithuania’s Nausėda warns
Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda said he worried that “the events in Middle East can overshadow the war in Ukraine,” with the world’s attention shifting to the Middle East.
“I don’t think this is [right], because we are at a very, very critical stage of the war, … with a lot of casualties … and I think we are still far away from any peace deal,” he said.
Nausėda said that Russia continued to stall the talks as it hopes to “occupy as much territory as possible” and is “probably not ready for any kind of compromises.”
“This is the reason why we require to strengthen the sanctions regime. It’s unexplainable, and unfortunately [regretable], that we still doesn’t have the 20th package of sanctions on the table, and we have to complete this as soon as possible,” he said.
He added:
“It’s very difficult to convince Orbán, but it’s regrettable that we are losing so much time and we could proceed much earlier … It is no secret that Ukraine badly needs the €90bn … [as] they are under huge pressure fighting, not only on the battlefield, but also in the economic field.”
Dutch PM Jetten makes EU debut backing Ukraine, warning against Iran impact
The new Dutch prime minister, Rob Jetten, is making his European Council debut this morning.
Asked about Viktor Orbán’s position, Jetten insisted that “it is obvious that Ukraine needs out full support to win this war against the Russian aggression,” as he stressed the EU loan “is crucial to make sure Ukraine can prepare for the next winter.”
He said he expected all leaders to respect decisions made at previous summits, adding he was hopeful that a technical fix to the pipeline could be found quickly “so that this loan can take effect as soon as possible.”
Jetten also spoke about the war in Iran, warning about “higher energy prices, so we have to look how to protect out consumers and companies against big impact of this war.”
On another big issue of this summit, the push to reform the European Union Emissions Trading System, he said he was “willing to look how to improve our climate policies, but … not going to revoke policies that are … crucial to making sure that this continent is greener and stronger in the long term.”
Morning opening: Let’s talk about Viktor
Jakub Krupa
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels this morning for what was meant to be a discussion on the bloc’s competitiveness and economy, but “events, my dear boy, events” mean they will have to focus on Hungary’s ongoing spat with Ukraine and the Middle East instead.
Less than four weeks before a key parliamentary election in Hungary, Viktor Orbán will once again come under pressure to unblock the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine, which he is blocking over a dispute about the Druzhba pipeline.
But arriving in Brussels just a few minutes ago, Orbán has made it clear that he is not in a mood to compromise.
He said:
“We would like to get the oil which is ours from the Ukrainians and which is … blocked by the Ukrainians. I will never support any kind of decision here which is in favour of Ukraine [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belong to us.”
Asked if there is any other option to agree a way forward, he said: “No.”
“Sorry, no other option. We need it because it’s existential. What we are speaking about is not politics. It’s existential for Hungary to get the oil. … Without getting that oil, all the households, Hungarian companies will go to bankruptcy.
So you know, it’s not a joke, not a political game. Zelenskyy should understand it that this is not a game. This is absolutely existential for the Hungarians.”
The leaders will also have to discuss the situation in the Middle East amid growing concerns about the impact the conflict will have on Europe, including on energy prices.
Finland’s Petteri Orpo warned that Russia is the only beneficiary of this chaos and rising energy prices, as he urged leaders to step up pressure on Moscow.
He also pointedly criticised Orbán saying “he is using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign, and it’s not good.”
Orpo’s comments come just days after Belgium’s prime minister Bart de Wever appeared to suggest that the EU should look to improve its relationship with Moscow to get cheaper energy.
It should be a lively day in Brussels and I will bring you all the latest here.
It’s Thursday, 19 March 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
