Mid-Major Bubble Teams
6 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio)
Santa Clara Broncos (25-7, 15-3 in WCC, NET: 42)
Quad Breakdown: 1-5 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2, 10-0 in Q3, 7-1 in Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Saint Mary’s, Win vs. Oregon State, Win vs. Pacific
All three of the Broncos conference losses came against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and they split the regular season with the Gaels to give their resume a Quad 1 anchor. They also beat Minnesota, Xavier and a good McNeese State team, and have an offense that ranks No. 24 in KenPom’s efficiency metric. Avoiding a bad loss to Pacific in their WCC tournament opener on Sunday might have secured their spot.
VCU Rams (24-7, 15-3 in A-10, NET: 44)
Quad Breakdown: 2-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Fordham, Win vs. George Mason, Win at Dayton
The Rams are the best hope the A-10 has to avoid being a one-bid league for the third time in the last four years, and their resume includes Quad 1 wins over South Florida and Dayton, as well as a neutral site victory over Virginia Tech. That said, they might need to reach the A-10 championship game against Saint Louis or Dayton to have a shot at an at-large bid.
New Mexico Lobos (22-9, 13-7 in MWC, NET: 45)
Quad Breakdown: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 4-2 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. San Diego State, Loss vs. Colorado State, Loss at Utah State
After a 9-2 start to conference play, the Lobos went 4-5 over their final nine games and watched their NCAA tournament status steadily erode along the way. Head-to-head victories over VCU and Santa Clara are an interesting data point in the bubble conversation, though a pair of Quad 3 losses also drags down their overall body of work.
San Diego State Aztecs (20-10, 14-6 in MWC, NET: 47)
Quad Breakdown: 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at New Mexico, Loss at Boise State, Win vs. UNLV
The Aztecs are 2-4 over their last six games, including road losses to New Mexico and Boise State to further complicate the Mountain West bubble picture. They did beat both of those teams at home earlier in the year, but those also stand as their only potential victories over teams headed for the NCAA tournament.
Boise State Broncos (20-11, 12-8 in MWC, NET: 57)
Quad Breakdown: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 8-1 vs. Q3, 3-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Fresno State, Win vs. San Diego State, Win at Colorado State
While several other Mountain West bubble teams have been trending in the wrong direction, the Broncos have ripped off five straight victories to claw back into the NCAA tournament picture. A win over San Jose State on Wednesday would set up a quarterfinals matchup with New Mexico in what could amount to an elimination game.
South Florida Bulls (23-8, 15-3 in American, NET: 49)
Quad Breakdown: 2-2 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 6-3 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Tulane, Win at Memphis, Win vs. Charlotte
With nine straight wins and a NET ranking inside the top 50, the Bulls have quietly put together a strong at-large case, and the latest Bracket Matrix has them as the top No. 12 seed. If they make it to the conference title game and lose to a good Tulsa team that sits No. 50 in the NET rankings, they might be able to sneak out an at-large bid.
