The disappearance of NBC journalist Savannah Guthrie’s mother spurred an urgent search, with law enforcement and family members asking the public for any information that could lead them to 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie.
When a kidnapping or suspected abduction is reported, investigators often say that time is the enemy. The first 24 to 72 hours after a kidnapping are widely considered the most critical window for safely rescuing a victim or determining what might have happened.
Here’s why those early hours matter so much, what law enforcement is doing behind the scenes, and what people often get wrong about missing persons cases.
Here’s why the first hours matter so much.
There’s no universal stopwatch that starts ticking the moment someone disappears, but investigators agree that the earliest hours offer the best chance for answers.
“The reason the first 48 to 72 hours are critical is because evidence can dissipate over time,” said Daniel Maxwell, a professor of practice at the University of New Haven’s Henry C. Lee College of Criminal Justice and Forensic Science. “It is also critical to create as much awareness as possible to generate more leads, witnesses and information.”
Wes Jennings, a professor of criminal justice and legal studies at the University of Mississippi, echoed that sentiment, noting that the evidence trail is strongest right after a crime occurs.
“The first 24 to 72 hours ― with the first 48 being the more commonly discussed window ― are critical as this is when physical evidence, witness memories, and investigative leads are the freshest and most recoverable,” he said.
As time passes, surveillance footage can be overwritten, digital records can disappear, forensic evidence can degrade and people’s recollections can become less reliable.
“Potential witnesses will forget the innocuous things they may have seen that could be helpful to the case ― i.e., a car parked in a desolated area,” said Michelle N. Jeanis, an associate professor in the criminal justice department at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.
While that is true for any kind of investigation, kidnapping cases are particularly time sensitive, as the victim’s safety is at risk.
“The likelihood of safely recovering the victim is highest in this critical time period,” Jennings said.
The longer someone is missing, the more opportunity there is to hide or destroy evidence and move the victim farther and farther away.
“Each passing hour expands the search area and reduces the number of solid leads. That’s why investigators treat the early phase as a fast-closing window,” said Maureen O’Connell, a retired FBI agent who now works as a TSCM, electronic security, and investigative specialist at Lions 4 Security.
The victim’s age, health and circumstances can make the timeline even more urgent.
“Those hours become really, really critical if it’s a high risk case ― whether it’s a young child, an elderly person, someone who is disabled or has medical needs or mobility issues,” said Thaddeus Johnson, a former law enforcement official who is now a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice and a professor of criminal justice and criminology at Georgia State University.
Jennings noted that kidnappers rely on time, mobility and anonymity to evade detection.
“Law enforcement relies on rapid response and evidence collection to facilitate the successful search for and safe recovery of the victim ― as well as the successful apprehension of the kidnapper,” he added.
Here’s what investigators do during that time.
In the earliest stages of a kidnapping or high-risk disappearance, investigators typically take a variety of steps, many of which aren’t immediately visible to the public.
“Early on, law enforcement focuses on three things: finding the person, preserving evidence, and figuring out whether a crime may be involved,” O’Connell said. “Investigators work quickly to build a verified timeline, interview anyone who last saw or spoke to the person, check hospitals, jails, and transit points and review surveillance footage and phone activity.”
Law enforcement may enter the individual’s name into missing persons databases and alert other jurisdictions to be on the lookout.
“Immediately they will be canvassing the neighborhood to talk with neighbors,” said Erin Kimmerle, executive director and professor at the Florida Institute for Forensic Anthropology and Applied Science at the University of South Florida. “They typically are searching for witnesses and video footage.”
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Officers might also visit locations the person was known to frequent. They will look at the recent behavior of the victim and their closest associates.
“There’s a concept called the 24/24 rule where you look at what the victim and those who surround them were doing in the 24 hours prior to the event and then what the people who surround the victim were doing in the 24 hours after the event,” Maxwell said.
“Law enforcement will also organize media coverage, both traditional and social, to maximize exposure as rapidly as possible because, again, time is the enemy,” he added.
Throughout the process, investigators also need to keep the family up to date and continue to gather information about the victim ― health history, relationships, previous conflicts, any past incidents of going missing or of self-harm, etc.
“Risk factors ― such as age, health issues, mental state or recent changes in behavior ― help determine how aggressively the case is pursued,” O’Connell said. “If there are signs of danger or abduction, resources escalate quickly. The goal during this period is speed and accuracy ― gathering as much reliable information as possible before leads go cold.”
If foul play is suspected, preserving the crime scene and documenting the chain of custody for evidence becomes especially important, Johnson said. There might be DNA, fingerprints, signs of forced entry and struggle, or physical evidence for forensic analysis.
“You also want to take steps for digital and financial leads,” he added. “Have they taken out any money? Have they had a large deposit come into their account? What about their social media activity? Any unusual messages?”
The actual search operations can be multifaceted as well. Think: K-9 units, drones, aerial support and people on foot.
Jeanis noted that responses can vary depending on the agency.
“There are no required protocols for adult missing persons cases in the U.S., thus leaving each agency and patrol officer to make their own decisions,” Jeanis said, adding that this leads to “a wide array of choices ― some good, some bad.”
She believes the International Association of Chiefs of Police’s best practices guidelines are a great resource and can help standardize early investigative steps across law enforcement agencies.
There are some harmful misconceptions and myths about missing persons cases.
One of the most persistent ― and damaging ― myths surrounding missing persons cases is the belief that families must wait 24 or 48 hours before they can report someone missing. Experts say that misconception, fueled in part by television and pop culture, can cause serious delays that cost investigators critical time.
“A missing persons report can and should be filed immediately if there is a concern for the person’s safety or if their disappearance appears to be out of character,” Jennings said. “For example, they are not usually someone who is ‘unreachable’ or ‘non-responsive’ when attempting to make contact with them for a prolonged period of time. Certain demographic groups ― children, older adults, people with medical conditions ― are particularly vulnerable if significant delays are taken before reporting the person missing.”
For those who aren’t in those vulnerable groups, starting the search process can sometimes be more challenging.
“In some cases, the police don’t take missing adults as a serious issue,” Kimmerle said. “If they don’t see evidence of foul play, they may not open a missing person case or direct personnel to search. In a lot of cases adults go missing, but their exact location is unknown and so jurisdiction can be a problem. Agencies may direct families to a different police station and they fall through the cracks.”
In those situations, she encouraged families to try to keep the story in the media and engage the public.
“The more eyes on the case, the more likely you are to recover the missing individual,” Jeanis said. “Missing people without media attention are missing longer or still missing today.”
And, unfortunately, not everyone gets the same amount of media exposure or attention from the public.
“Women get more exposure than men, white victims get three times more media attention than minorities, and young, white female victims get [the] most media exposure,” Maxwell said.
Although social media and public attention can be powerful tools, they can also complicate investigations if not handled carefully.
“The public is incredibly powerful and important,” Johnson said. “But information that isn’t credible can swamp tip lines, trigger false sightings and send resources in the wrong direction.”
That’s why it’s hugely important for the public and for victims’ loved ones to be fully honest as they work with investigators.
“Families also sometimes hold back information out of embarrassment or fear,” O’Connell said. “Even details that seem personal or minor ― arguments, health issues, relationship stress, or behavior changes ― can be critical to an investigation.”
Another common misconception is that kidnappings typically involve strangers. While that does happen, experts say it’s far from the norm.
“Oftentimes the kidnapper is known to the victim such as a family member, current or former intimate partner, co-worker, acquaintance, caregiver,” Jennings said. “This is why it is important to talk with these individuals early on in the investigative process.”
Finally, experts stressed that missing persons cases are rarely solved through a single dramatic tip or breakthrough moment.
“This work is not sexy,” Johnson said. “It’s about building a clean timeline, preserving evidence early, collecting video, conducting interviews and separating high-quality tips from noise.”
Solving these cases is about steady, methodical work and persistence.
“Community input often plays a major role, especially when information is shared early and accurately,” O’Connell said. “Lastly, time is the most valuable resource investigators have, and once it’s gone, it can’t be recovered.”
