Phillies vs. Reds odds, line, prediction, start time: 2025 MLB picks, July 4 bets from proven model

The Philadelphia Phillies (51-36) host the Cincinnati Reds (45-42) in an NL showdown that begins on the 4th of July. Both teams head into this game coming off a win. The Reds topped the Boston Red Sox 8-4 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Phillies have won three of its past four games, outlasting the San Diego Padres 5-1 on July 2. Andrew Abbott (7-1, 1.79 ERA) gets the start for the Reds. Jesus Luzardo (7-4, 4.06 ERA) is on the hill for the Phillies. 

First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a -162 favorite on the money line (risk $162 to win $100) in the latest Reds vs. Phillies odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Reds vs. Phillies picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 15 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 39-30 run on top-rated MLB sides picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 24 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Reds vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Reds vs. Phillies, which you can get in on with a DraftKings promo code or a FanDuel promo code.

Why the Reds can win

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz is leading the team in home runs (18) and hits (92) and is 12th in the majors in RBI (58). The 23-year-old has recorded at least two hits in five of his last nine games. On June 29 against the Padres, De La Cruz was 2-of-4 with one run driven in. 

Abbott takes the mound and has allowed one or fewer runs in four straight games. The 26-year-old has also racked up at least five strikeouts in four of his last six matchups. Cincinnati has a 34-17 run line record as the underdog and a 21-12 run line record as the away underdog. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Phillies can win

Left fielder Kyle Schwarber is tied for fourth in the MLB in home runs (26), tied for 12th in RBI (58), and ninth in OPS (.912). In addition, he has 78 hits and 10 doubles. The 32-year-old belted a home run in a contest against the Padres on Wednesday. 

Shortstop Trea Turner ranks first on the team in batting average (.297) and hits (104). He also has 11 home runs and 39 RBI. The three-time All-Star is on a three-game hitting streak, going 1-of-4 with one run scored in his last outing. Philadelphia has an 8-6 run line record with one day of rest. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Reds vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.4 combined runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Reds vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.